Special Addition—Some Thoughts on Super Tuesday

(353 words, one-minute read)

Since President Trump will be the Republican nominee, the primary question remaining is who will be the Democratic candidate. What may be the definitive Democratic primaries take place tomorrow across 14 states.  As voting begins, how can we distill what really matters? Let’s try to be fact-based and rational.

You will find a summary of the candidates’ positions on the major policy issues below. All of these positions can be sourced directly on the candidates’ websites. With this summary as a guide, here are a few thoughts and considerations if you are voting tomorrow.

Question One: Based purely on policy, it seems fair to conclude that there are few actual differences between Warren and Sanders, nor are there any real policy differences between Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.

There are several differences, however, between the two groups of candidates.

Warren and Sanders generally support higher taxes on the wealthy, more government spending domestically, and less government involvement internationally than do Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.

A potential question one, therefore, is where do you stand on this policy spectrum? Are you in the Sanders/Warren camp or are you more aligned with the others?

Question Two: Once you choose a policy camp, question two is which candidate within the group do you think will be the most effective in the general election, and if elected, the most effective president? While there may be few policy distinctions within each group of candidates, there are considerable stylistic and experiential differences.

This is where visceral reactions and general comfort levels are important. Whom do you trust? Whom do you believe in?

Final Question: To add complexity to this discussion, it is probably important to consider whether the policy differences between the candidates really matter in the long run. Consider the following.

They all want to increase taxes on the wealthy, move in the direction of universal healthcare, address climate change, promote gun control, and find ways to make college more affordable. 

Once in office, and once the tortuous legislative process begins, they will be able to move the needle in that direction or not, depending on their own skill and the makeup of the Congress. Given that, will the small differences in their views actually matter to the outcome? Do you move the needle further by aiming further? Or might you end up in the same position regardless of your aim? 

Here is our summary of the candidates’ positions on the issues.

(725 words, three-minute read)

Healthcare: All the candidates want to expand the availability of healthcare, with the primary distinction between them being one of timing. Sanders is alone in advocating for an immediate transition to “Medicare for All,” replacing all private insurance. Warren has retreated to a four-year transition, while the other candidates prefer a voluntary public option. Buttigieg, before he dropped out, referred to this as “Medicare for all who want it.” Biden/Klobuchar/Bloomberg simply refer to it as the addition of a public option to the Affordable Care Act. As we argued in a recent Commentary entitled “Tuesday’s Democratic Healthcare Debate: Distinctions Without a Difference,” these distinctions are unlikely to matter once the process of negotiation and compromise begins in the Congress. 

With respect to cost reduction, they have all focused on reducing drug costs. As we discussed in “The Cost of Universal Healthcare,” drug prices are only one reason that US healthcare costs are higher than elsewhere, with the balance of the explanation being hospital and provider costs. Pharmaceutical companies are easy targets, but none of the candidates has shown the courage to address this reality and incur the wrath of the American Medical Association and American Hospital Association.

Climate Change: All the candidates believe climate change is real, and they all are particularly fond of referring to the risk as “existential.” Although they have slightly different plans at different costs, there has been virtually no debate about the details. Again, as with healthcare, details may not matter once the legislative process begins.

Taxes: All the candidates agree on a general reversal of the Trump tax cuts. The differences between the marginal rates and deductions in their programs are not significant. As with healthcare, however, Sanders and Warren depart from the group by proposing wealth taxes in addition to income taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Sanders’s expectation is to cut the wealth of billionaires in half over 15 years.  

Defense: While all have advocated against “endless wars,” only Warren is consistently definitive about immediately bringing home all troops left in the Middle East. Sanders and Klobuchar have prevaricated in some manner, with general references to “withdrawing the right way” or leaving behind special forces. In contrast, Bloomberg and Biden have been clear that they would leave a small presence in the region.

With respect to spending levels, Sanders and Warren have been the most aggressive about reducing total spending, but have not been specific. Klobuchar has said she would support cuts, while Biden and Bloomberg have simply said that current spending levels should be reviewed for potential reduction.

Infrastructure: Each of the candidates has an infrastructure program, with differences only in amount. As with climate change, there has been no substantive debate on the details.

Student Debt: Warren and Sanders would forgive all student debt regardless of income level. The rest of the candidates would take a more measured approach. Biden would provide income-related relief to borrowers and relief to borrowers who enter public service and nonprofit work. 

Cost of College Education: Sanders and Warren would make public universities and community colleges tuition free regardless of income. Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg would provide two years of free community college, while Bloomberg would subsidize four-year college costs based on family income.

Gun Control: There is little daylight between the candidates on gun control. They all support expanded background checks, regulation of gun-show loopholes, passage of “red flag” laws, and banning assault weapons. 

Social Security: Each of the candidates supports strengthening and expanding Social Security, generally by raising the minimum benefit level. Although they all acknowledge that the Social Security cash flows will turn negative around 2035, only Klobuchar, Warren, and Sanders have specifically proposed to address the problem by raising the cap on the payroll tax. Biden and Bloomberg have been less specific, simply referring to “adjusting tax rates for high earners.”

Daycare: Sanders and Warren have proposed providing daycare and pre-K education to all children, regardless of family income. Biden would do so for children ages three and four while Klobuchar proposes subsidies based on income tests.

Deficit Spending and Total Federal Debt: This is the elephant in the room that everyone has decided to avoid addressing. Responsible fiscal management no longer has an advocate in either political party.