Climate Change Is Not Waiting for the COVID-19 Vaccine

(882 words, four-minute read)

While the world waits for a vaccine to give us relief from the pandemic, the steady march of global warming and the climatic consequences not only continue but are accelerating. This rapid pace of change required that our research on the subject, first completed only in 2018, be fundamentally rewritten. Here is a brief summary of what we learned.

Climate change in a nutshell

Since 1850, the beginning of industrialization, humans have utilized fossil fuels in industry, transportation, electricity production, and the heating and cooling of commercial and residential buildings and homes.

The conversion of fossil fuel to energy releases greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere, the most important of which is carbon dioxide (CO2). CO2 is measured in parts per million (ppm). Since 1958, when measurements were first conducted, CO2 ppm have increased from 316 to 414. 

GHGs in the atmosphere trap heat from the sun, resulting in an increase in earth and atmospheric temperatures. Since 1850, global average temperatures have increased by one degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.

The effect of this “global warming” is not simply warmer temperatures. Higher global temperatures make the atmosphere more energetic, contributing to increased intensity in weather fluctuations. The effect is throughout our entire climate system, including wind, clouds, storms, and heat waves.

For example, warming air boosts evaporation and increases water vapor in the atmosphere. This can both worsen the length and severity of droughts and lead to heavier, more dangerous rain and snowstorms. 

There are many current observable effects of climate change.

Extreme global temperatures

Of the 17 warmest years on record, 16 have occurred since 2001, and many scientists believe that 2020 will be the hottest year on record. Many of the deadliest heat waves in recorded history have happened since 2000.

Sea level rise

The combination of rising temperatures and glacial melt has raised global sea levels by about eight inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades is nearly double that of the last century. 

The oceans are also absorbing atmospheric CO2, causing the acidity of surface waters to increase by about 30% since the industrial revolution.

Extreme weather events

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes have increased since the early 1980s. Wildfires in California have increased fivefold since 1972. The once seasonal reliability of the annual monsoons in India has changed to periods of drought followed by intense precipitation and floods.

Although 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit may seem small to us, it is not small in the context of nature. It alone is enough to affect animal reproduction and migration as well as agricultural and human productivity. The related increase in ocean acidity inhibits the growth of coral and plankton, causing shells to dissolve and endangering the natural habitat of millions of species.  

Feedback loops

As the earth warms due to human activity, more carbon is released by nature in what is referred to as a feedback loop. For example, as the ice mass melts, its ability to reflect the sun’s heat lessens, thereby increasing its melting. Melting also releases methane, a GHG stored in the permafrost, into the atmosphere. Finally, a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Water vapor traps heat, further increasing the rate of warming. These series of feedbacks add momentum to even small amounts of warming.

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius, with a preferred lower limit of 1.5 degrees. It was signed by 197 states and the European Union.

Why 1.5 degrees?

The hope is to avoid two degrees of warming, which is considered to be a dangerous tipping point. At two degrees, 99% of coral reefs would be wiped out, the planet’s ice sheets would collapse, hundreds of the world’s largest coastal cities would be flooded, and major cities on the equatorial band would be unlivable.

Will we meet the goal?

Given the current trajectory, most scientists now see two degrees as a best case, with estimates falling into a range of 1.5-4.5 degrees of warming through the end of the century.

What is predicted to happen at higher average temperatures?

At three degrees, in addition to the effects described above, southern Europe would be in permanent drought, average droughts in Central America and the Caribbean would last 19 and 21 months longer respectively, average droughts in northern Africa would last five years or longer, and areas burned by wildfires would double in the Mediterranean and sextuple or more in the United States. 

At four degrees, global food crises would be a regular occurrence, eight million more cases of dengue fever would occur in Latin America annually, and the world would see 9% more heat-related deaths. Economic damages could pass $600 trillion—more than twice the wealth that exists in the world today. 

How has this become a partisan issue?

The scientific evidence is overwhelming. We create GHGs. GHGs trap heat. Heat changes the climate. Period. While predictive models are only estimates and will vary, there should be no debate about the consequences that are already readily observable. All around us, coastal properties are flooding, people are relocating, cities are fortifying, insurance companies are retreating and raising rates, and hundred-year storms are happening yearly. 

What should be debated is how to respond to the facts, not the facts themselves. What can we afford to do? How much of our current lifestyle do we want to sacrifice in order to protect the future? And how should we execute? These are valid questions, and reasonable people will disagree. Perhaps even along party lines. This topic I will take up in our next commentary.